Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 21.956617 23.886686 25.975912 28.417153 31.206386 34.311738 38.055700
2025-10-05 18.888237 21.515184 24.560866 28.399048 33.174228 39.013370 46.846014
2025-10-12 16.836103 19.852158 23.538134 28.472546 35.065181 43.821485 56.803274
2025-10-19 15.458929 18.744194 22.936571 28.844202 37.249325 49.298587 69.000694
2025-10-26 14.213931 17.613449 22.102267 28.696439 38.586466 53.742472 80.869442
2025-11-02 13.163552 16.604233 21.277333 28.387949 39.552686 57.721624 93.149996
2025-11-09 12.367799 15.849779 20.700645 28.324192 40.822565 62.387890 108.293595
2025-11-16 11.644818 15.124606 20.078561 28.085550 41.725636 66.557525 124.070643
2025-11-23 11.010311 14.469407 19.488945 27.808478 42.487039 70.594084 141.351687
2025-11-30 10.456350 13.886855 18.951544 27.541315 43.200857 74.674475 160.831921
2025-12-07 9.997088 13.409913 18.531995 27.414180 44.136015 79.429004 185.013614
2025-12-14 9.543515 12.910604 18.035665 27.095711 44.642739 83.351855 209.343725
2025-12-21 9.403368 12.885427 18.300328 28.161621 48.133171 95.479291 273.880662
2025-12-28 9.019741 12.459349 17.880860 27.943262 48.923761 101.131561 319.806907
2026-01-04 8.707157 12.126326 17.590570 27.933460 50.169583 108.482022 384.439218
2026-01-11 8.479029 11.913410 17.484932 28.261057 52.236555 119.035922 487.109664
2026-01-18 8.187284 11.581143 17.150502 28.103901 53.140138 126.406742 587.855050
2026-01-25 7.893872 11.230965 16.761799 27.799089 53.636319 132.694538 700.100258
2026-02-01 7.658790 10.964946 16.503851 27.735001 54.731820 141.644361 874.717813
2026-02-08 7.414716 10.672205 16.180015 27.502617 55.356114 149.206552 1076.457076
2026-02-15 7.181349 10.386884 15.852887 27.233477 55.843577 156.558940 1331.667374
2026-02-22 6.963997 10.119247 15.542978 26.974136 56.322228 164.228565 1674.151167
2026-03-01 6.778168 9.897352 15.304868 26.850723 57.172424 174.144926 2222.255297